So the US allows India to buy Russian oil again. Just like that. A 30-day waiver, announced quietly, while the Middle East burns and global crude prices spiral. If you blinked, you might have missed the sheer audacity of it, because barely a month ago, Washington was doing the exact opposite, pressuring India to cut Russian oil imports entirely as a condition of a trade deal. And now here we are, back to square one, except this time with an expiry date stamped on it.
First of all, what does a waiver mean?
A waiver in the oil market is an official exemption granted by a government, allowing a country or company to bypass existing sanctions or trade restrictions for a limited period.
Think of it like a hall pass in school. The rule says you can’t leave class, but the teacher gives you a slip that says “this time, it’s okay.” Same logic here — the US has rules against buying Russian oil, but it handed India a slip saying “you can do it for 30 days, we won’t penalise you.
Stop Buying Russian Oil. Then, Please Buy Russian Oil. Wait, What?
President Trump announced that the US would lower its 25% tariffs on Indian goods to 18% and scrap the additional 25% penalty levy that was specifically placed on India for buying Russian oil. The headline from Trump’s side was clear: India had “agreed to stop buying Russian oil” as part of a trade deal. Washington was essentially telling New Delhi, toe our line on Russia, or pay the price.
India had been one of the biggest buyers of discounted Russian crude ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent Western sanctions. India’s argument was straightforward, it was acting in its own national interest, buying affordable energy for a developing economy of 1.4 billion people. A perfectly reasonable position. But Washington and its European allies weren’t happy, accusing India of helping fund Russia’s war effort.
So the pressure worked. Imports from Russia dipped to about 1.1 million barrels per day in January — the lowest since November 2022. India was beginning to pivot, exploring alternatives, diversifying. The message from Washington had been received.
And then the Middle East conflict exploded.
Why does the US now Allow India to Buy Russian Oil?
Iran retaliated against US and Israeli strikes by launching missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Oman and others. Oil infrastructure got hit. The Strait of Hormuz through which roughly 40% of India’s crude imports pass started looking very fragile. Global oil prices spiked. Suddenly, Russian oil didn’t look like a geopolitical liability. It looked like a very convenient lifeline.
So what did Washington do? It announced a 30-day waiver allowing India to increase its purchases of Russian oil. Enough to stabilise oil prices, keep India from panicking, and manage the optics of a crisis that the US itself helped escalate. And then? Presumably, the pressure returns.
This is what you’d call lollipop diplomacy. Here’s a treat. Now do what we say. Actually, here’s the treat back for a bit because we need something from you. Now give it back.
“America First” and Everyone Else Can Figure It Out
The US operates on a very simple principle: what’s good for America right now, in this moment, is the policy. Not what’s consistent. Not what’s fair. Not what respects the sovereignty of partner nations. Just what serves American interests at this particular point in time.
When Russia was the primary adversary to manage, India buying Russian oil was bad. It funded the war. It undermined sanctions. India needed to be brought in line.
When the Middle East crisis spiked oil prices and threatened to destabilise global energy markets which would hurt the US economy, suddenly the US ‘allows’ India to buy Russian oil. The problem, of course, is that India’s foreign policy can’t be run on 30-day waivers. India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer. Its refiners process about 5.6 million barrels of crude per day.
Energy security isn’t a tap you turn on and off based on Washington’s mood. It requires long-term contracts, stable relationships, and critically a consistent policy environment.
The US demanding that India abandon Russian oil, only to hand back a temporary permission slip when it becomes convenient, is not a partnership. It’s leverage management. India is being used as a pressure tool against Russia when that suits Washington, and as an emergency shock absorber when the Middle East boils over.
And Then There’s Ukraine
Here’s perhaps the most tone-deaf move in this entire saga, and it deserves its own spotlight. The US reportedly asked Ukraine, a country actively fighting a war on its own soil, losing soldiers and civilians every single day, whose cities are being bombed to support US forces against Iran.
Read that again slowly.
A country that is currently in a war, that has been desperately pleading with the West for more weapons, more support, more aid, that country is being asked to contribute to yet another conflict that the US is involved in. Not the other way around. The US isn’t being asked to do more for Ukraine. Ukraine is being asked to do more for the US.
It’s a window into how Washington actually views its relationships. Ukraine isn’t a partner whose survival matters in and of itself. When Ukraine needs help, there are debates, delays, conditions, political theatre in Congress. When the US needs something from Ukraine, even from a country in the middle of a war, the ask comes without apparent irony.
What It Really Means When the US Allows India to Buy Russian Oil for “Just 30 Days”?
India has maintained a remarkably steady foreign policy posture through all of this. New Delhi has consistently argued that its energy decisions are made in the interest of its own people and that’s exactly the right position to hold.
But these 30-day waivers and shifting demands create a genuinely difficult environment. India’s national crude stocks cover roughly only 25 days of demand. With about 40% of crude imports transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, any disruption is an immediate crisis. In that context, having nearly 9.5 million barrels of Russian crude already positioned near Indian waters is not a geopolitical statement but a basic energy security.
The challenge is that every time India makes a pragmatic energy decision, it gets caught in the crossfire of US foreign policy pivots. Buy Russian oil and you’re funding the war. Don’t buy Russian oil and you’re running short during a Middle East crisis. Now buy it again, but only for a month.
India can’t build energy infrastructure, refinery capacity, or long-term supply contracts around America’s 30-day moods. And frankly, it shouldn’t have to.
The Bigger Picture
What we’re watching is the US trying to manage multiple geopolitical fires simultaneously, like Ukraine, Iran, Middle East stability, oil prices, trade negotiations and using relationships with countries like India as adjustable levers rather than genuine partnerships.
The “America First” doctrine isn’t inherently surprising. Every country, to some degree, puts its own interests first. But there’s a difference between looking out for yourself and actively weaponizing your allies’ vulnerabilities.
Granting 30-day oil waivers like they’re coupons with an expiry date stamped on them. These aren’t the moves of a country that sees India or Ukraine, or anyone else, as an equal partner. They’re the moves of a country that sees everyone as an instrument. The next time the US allows India to buy Russian oil as some kind of temporary favour, India would do well to ask the obvious question: what exactly is being asked for in return this time?
The US can keep its lollipop. India needs a foreign policy built on decades, not deadlines.
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